Must win: Craig Levein is tasked with plotting victory in Kaunas. Pic: © SNS Group
Scotland's 2012 Euro Championship qualifier against Lithuania in Kaunas on Friday night is a must-win game for Craig Levein - even though it is his first competitive match as national team boss and the Scots' first Group I fixture.
Forget for the moment the much-needed boost Scottish football needs after Motherwell, Dundee United and Celtic's depressing Europa League results last week.
In many ways, the national team is much more important to many more people but its reputation, like that of Scottish clubs, is also in tatters.
As anyone with any interest in our game knows, Scotland have failed to reach the finals of a major competition since 1998 and it's not getting any easier. It might bring added pressure to Levein and his players but in all probability anything less than six points from the forthcoming double-header which includes Liechtenstein at Hampden - we must surely be able to beat them - will see us kiss goodbye to hopes of reaching the finals in Ukraine and Poland.
It is an unusually fraught situation for a new manager to find himself in but in private, at least, the former Hearts and Dundee United boss will have targeted fixtures where three points can be picked up - and Kaunas will be one of them.
Levein might deny that publicly. He can do little else in case of a draw or defeat in the opening game. And of course, as long as it is arithmetically possible to finish first or second in the group then we will be told that all is not lost. But it would be inadvisable to fall in to the trap of looking at potential points totals which may be achieved if fates conspire kindly. These days they never do.
With only 24 points to play for - and World and European Champions, Spain, in the group - opportunities for picking up precious wins must be taken.
If we can muster up the confidence to consign Lithuania to also-rans then Scotland face a fight with the Czech Republic for second spot and a play-off place. We must assume the Czechs will beat Lithuania and Liechtenstein home and away. Therefore Levein's side must do the same and look to go better in the head-to-head with the Czechs.
Ahead of the 2010 World Cup qualifiers Levein's predecessor, George Burley, publicly aimed for a points total of 17 from a five-team group that included Holland.
But he lost his first qualifier in Macedonia and immediately Scotland were on the back foot. They never recovered even though arithmetically, it went to the wire.
There were two expected wins against Iceland and an expected loss in Holland, but a goalless draw against Norway at Hampden was not in the script.Before the return game in Oslo in August, Scotland required six points from the last three games to take second place.
Arithmetically possible, realistically improbable.
After the demoralising 4-0 defeat at the Ullevaal Stadium Burley claimed that "nothing had changed" in regards of the points total needed for a play-off spot.
In fact, everything had changed. Scotland had to overcome Macedonia and Holland at Hampden. The same Holland that would reach the final in South Africa this summer.
Macedonia were beaten but it was comfortable 1-0 win for the talented Dutch side who had already qualified long before they flew to Glasgow.
So on that basis, don't count on taking points from Spain even though they, too, will probably have qualified by the time the Scots arrive over there next year for the last group game.
Should we expect to win in Lithuania? Of course not.
In Scotland's last nine away games, eight have been lost and only one won. The most recent away defeat to Sweden in Stockholm is still painfully fresh in the mind.
Notwithstanding the lack of key personnel due to injuries, the 3-0 deficit in the one-sided friendly was chastening and led to Levein reaching for the phone to recall Rangers' 40-year-old skipper Davie Weir.
Lithuania and Scotland have become regular rivals in recent years, having been drawn against each other in the last four European Championship qualifiers. In the last three meetings in Lithuania, the Scots have won one, lost one and drawn one.
So while there is no evidence to suggest Scotland should travel anywhere with great confidence, they simply have to get maximum points in Kaunas.
