Pic: © Reuters
Another late summer in August means it is time for a fresh re-acquaintance with the hotbed of sporting emotion that is Flushing Meadows in New York. Of all the venues, in all the world, as Rick so nearly said in Casablanca, this is the venue where stuffed shirts are left at the entry gate, where the players are allowed to express themselves without fear of being branded uncouth, and where American tennis aficionados habitually cast their minds back to the halcyon days of Connors and McEnroe, Sampras and Agassi, and wonder when a new generation of stars will emerge to earn their stripes.
Yet, even by the exalted standards of this magnificent piece of theatre, there is the scent of something special in the air about the build-up to this season’s battle of wills in the Big Apple. Could it be the fact that as many as half-a-dozen different men could claim the prize this time, whether it be Roger Federer or Rafael Nadal, Novak Djokovic or Andy Murray, Robin Soderling or Andy Roddick? Or could it be the fashion in which the fortunes of all these individuals have ebbed and flowed dramatically throughout the past few months?
The time was when Federer could almost take victory at this tournament for granted – and his winning streak of 41 consecutive matches, until he was defeated in last year’s final by Juan Martin Del Potro, is a record which will probably never be surpassed – but the Swiss maestro’s grip on the game is diminishing, even as the stock of Murray and Soderling is rising. In the midst of the endless speculation, blitz of statistics, and claims and counter-clams from the challengers, one of the few things which can be declared with any certainty is that the Open will provide unmissable entertainment.
Federer, as usual, has been installed as the favourite. He is the all-time greatest, with 16 majors in his locker, and is coming into the tournament after winning in Cincinnati last weekend. But, despite his myriad gifts and impeccable repertoire of shots, one wonders whether he truly believes, deep down in his soul, that he can cling on at the summit until he has triumphed in four more Grand Slam events. Much will depend on whether he hits the ground running and improves on his return of serve – a notable weakness in the last few months – but although Federer tends to bridle at any suggestion that he is on the wane, the evidence is stacking up for the prosecution.
Indeed, the first obvious signs of decline happened in New York 12 months ago when he permitted the rookie, Del Potro, to recover in circumstances where the Fed Express of 2006 or 2007 would simply have blown away the young Argentinian. “After Wimbledon, I had six weeks to work on a few things. On the hard courts, it’s nice to play forwards and not always be defensive and let the other guy dictate,” said Federer, during his post-Cincinnati press conference. This was his way of telling his rivals: “I’m going to attack you and go at you 100%” Yet, while that might intimidate some opponents, it won’t faze Nadal or Murray.
Nadal, of course, has problems of his own. He wasn’t at his best in either of the last two competitions in North America and, whereas he is sublime on clay and increasingly at home on grass, the hard courts of Flushing Meadows don’t particularly suit his style. This isn’t to dismiss his chances entirely, considering his status as world No 1, and as the man who was in scintillating form at Roland Garros and Wimbledon.
But, by this stage of the campaign, Nadal usually begins to resemble a fast bowler running into a head wind. The spirit is willing, his resolve is undeniable, but his lack of a truly potent serve hampers his chances of winning games comfortably, and invariably sees him drawn him protracted – and tiring – wars of attrition. That constant wear and tear on his body has hampered him in the past and explains why he has never succeeded in New York, and there may even be a slight psychological barrier in his mind, given the stark contrast between his displays at Flushing Meadows and everywhere else. If he reaches the final, one can envisage him doing the same to Federer as Del Potro managed last time. But, before that transpires, an awful lot has to go right for both of these implacable rivals and intimate friends.
Murray, for instance, would need to fail again, despite ample indications that he is in ideal physical and mental shape to seize the prize which he most covets. Disposing of David Nalbandian, Nadal and Federer in the space of three days in Toronto, clearly demonstrated that the 23 year-old can mix and match his tactics with the best, either through preying on opponents’ weaknesses or creating attacking platforms of his own. Bjorn Borg thinks that he will win the tournament this time. So does Pat Cash. John McEnroe has spoken positively about Murray’s development and how the atmosphere around the New York environs seems to heighten the adrenaline of the Scot. It is time that he realised his ambition, if for no other reason than that all his main adversaries – Roger, Rafa, Djokovic, Roddick, and the currently injured Del Potro - have found ways to put a Grand Slam title on their cvs. Murray has to join them or else risk being labelled as a “nearly man” or “the Colin Montgomerie of tennis.” That spectre alone should be sufficient motivation to inspire him when he commences his US Open campaign.
Can he do it? Yes, unequivocally. Will he do it? The answer lies in whether Murray genuinely believes that he can take on the greats over five sets and lick their boots. He had the opportunity at this venue in 2008 and came up short against Federer, but he is better now than he was then, while the opposite is true of the world No 2. He is also a superior talent to Djokovic, whatever the rankings might show to the contrary, and should fear nobody in the draw, or at least apart from the American, Mardy Fish, who has lost 30 pounds in weight and gained an immense amount of new stature in the sport.
But ultimately, the equation is pretty straightforward for Murray. He has to contemplate the possibility of another semi-final against Nadal, and remember that he beat the Spaniard when the duo last met at Flushing Meadows. In short, this is the most open Open in recent memory. And a wonderful path to posterity for the Scotsman.
