Rugby World Cup finalists France come to Murrayfield on Sunday having not played in over three weeks, but are still firm favourites to overcome a Scotland side who have shown plenty of spirit but have still failed to really ignite during their opening two defeats.
France coach Philippe Saint-Andre is in the unusual position of having a fully-fit squad of stars to select from mid-way through the championship, mainly due to the fact that their match against Ireland was controversially abandoned 10 minutes before kick off due to a frozen pitch. As a result of that postponement however, Les Blues now face the gruelling prospect of four test matches in four consecutive weekends which is bound to take its toll.
His Scottish counterpart Andy Robinson, however, is in a much tougher predicament having lost Perpignan-bound flanker Alisadair Strokosch to a wrist injury and also has question marks over the fitness of key lock forward Jim Hamilton and winger Max Evans for what is becoming an absolute must-win match for the Scots.
Against England on the opening weekend, Scotland enjoyed the majority of possession and had multiple opportunities to cross the line but all went a begging due to a lack of incision and composure in the opponent’s 22.
The following weekend in Cardiff in front of a large travelling support, they enjoyed a dominant start to the encounter against Wales and really should’ve been ahead at halftime but for an all too familiar lack of cohesion inches from the try line. Two petulant yellow cards early in the second half allowed the monstrous Welsh backs to build a lead which the Scots could not recover from despite a late flurry and a try from stand off Greig Laidlaw – their first in five months.
At the post-match press conferences, Robinson cut a frustrated lonely figure, adamant that this is a team that can compete but wholly unsatisfied at their inability to accumulate points when they are on offer combined with a worrying lack of basic skills at key moments.
There have been positives however, for Robinson to reflect on. The emergence of the abrasive Dave Denton along with a solid front five has meant that Scotland have been able to secure a strong foundation for set plays. In Cardiff, 19 year-old Glasgow Warrior Stuart Hogg made his debut from the bench after 23 minutes and immediately looked at home and was unlucky not to have been awarded a try near the end after breaking through the Welsh defence throughout the second half.
With the announcement that defence coach Graham Steadman will not have his contract renewed and the growing criticism of attack coach Gregor Townsend, Robinson looks to be on an increasingly shaky peg and will have thought long into the night about his team selection to overcome the mighty French at Murrayfield on Sunday.
The injury to Strockosch sees experienced John Barclay come into the side at blindside flanker alongside Denton and Ross Rennie, in a bid to run France around the pitch with the versatile and equally swift Richie Vernon covering all of the back row from the bench.
Jim Hamilton has overcome his minor injury to resume his second row partnership with Richie Gray, and the continued self-imposed sabbatical of Euan Murray means that the front row is unchanged from that which took the field in Cardiff.
Behind the scrum, however, are the real talking points. Robinson has decided to pair Edinburgh duo Mike Blair and Greig Laidlaw together for their first International start as a pair but it is the inclusion of Graeme Morrison alongside Sean Lamont in the centres which will be the major topic of discussion amongst fans, eager to see the likes of Matt Scott have an opportunity in an area devoid of real creativity of late.
As a result of Hogg’s outstanding debut in Cardiff, Rory Lamont moves to the wing to accommodate the Glasgow youngster whilst Lee Jones retains his wing berth.
Former captain Alistair Kellock again starts on the bench alongside clubmates Ed Kalman, Duncan Weir and the demoted Chris Cusiter, whilst Scott Lawson, Richie Vernon and Nick De Luca complete the replacements available to Robinson.
There will be many disgruntled Scotland fans hoping for an improved performance and ultimately a win at a sold-out Murrayfield on Sunday, and the players named to start have a responsibility to them to ensure they play to their capabilities and cut out the silly mistakes and basic errors which have played Scotland games of recent times. The fact that they have now only won two out of 12 Six Nations games under Robinson is damning proof that an improvement is required.
The inclusion of Hogg will improve the chances of the Murrayfield crowd seeing tries on Sunday, but Scotland need to be equally aware of the danger posed by the likes of Julien Malzieu and Wesley Fofana from Clermont Auvernge, the former having been recalled to the French squad and the latter having an outstanding debut professional season.
In the forwards, Coach Philippe Saint-Andre has opted for the same pack which was due to take the field against Ireland a fortnight ago meaning they will be either undercooked or well-rested depending which view point you happen to adopt.
The key for Scotland this weekend is to ensure another strong start and crucially, secure the re-starts as this has been an achilles heel for both the national team and also Glasgow and Edinburgh recently.
Robinson must make sure that his half-time team talk has the desired effect also as in both the games against England and Wales, Scotland returned to the field after the break and immediately conceded points which effectively ended the contests.
They must be better prepared as France, on their day, are one of the most dangerously unpredictable teams in world Rugby and Scotland will need to raise their game significantly if they are to record what would be an unlikely victory.
You can follow Finlay on Twitter @FinMorrison
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